2017 General Election: predictions from the TalkPolitics team

In the last few weeks, the polling gap between the Conservatives and Labour has narrowed. But is it too little too late for Mr Corbyn, or is a Labour victory now on the cards? And given the turbulence of British politics at the moment, how reliable is polling data?

Well, all will be revealed on June 8th. But for now, the Talk Politics team share their predictions for the upcoming general election.

June 8th: remember to use your vote!

Managing Director, Matt Gillow

It’s quite obvious that the tides of British politics are changing. When many feel forced to choose the ‘least worst’ option in the polling booth you have to question if it’s time for a fundamental redressing. For now – Conservatives win 5 seats (at SNP expense) and keep a slim majority. Strap in for a tricky, possibly quite divisive, five years.

Campaign Agent, Alasdair Fraser

I predict the June 8 election will return a hung parliament roughly along the lines spelt out by YouGov and backed up by polling from IpsosMORI, which show a resurgent Labour eradicating the narrow Tory majority. In Scotland, I predict the SNP will retain 50 seats plus or minus two, losing Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and possibly suffering in Edinburgh West following Michelle Thomson’s expulsion. I also think Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Aberdeen South, and Orkney & Shetland will all be seats to watch north of the border.

Campaign Agent, Eric Kostadinov

I think the election result will not be the huge landslide that was predicted when the election was called. Despite this, I expect the Tories to have roughly 360 seats with a 42% vote share, and Labour to have roughly 200 seats with a 35% vote share.

Campaign Agent, Will Fawcett

Aside from the momentum that Labour has been gaining in the polls and in their popularity, I still believe that Theresa May will gain a majority, albeit very small, over Corbyn who’s party is still split despite this election bringing the party together somewhat. I think turnout will be higher than previous elections, UKIP to gain 0 seats, Greens to retain their 1 seat and Lib Dems to gain 5-10 seats to put them around 18 or so seats.

Our new Campaign Agent and award-winning student journalist, Sophie Dishman

I predict that the Conservatives will win by a majority because Brexit is a huge issue for many in the UK at the moment. Theresa May was the person to trigger Article 50 so I think that will be a factor. I think Labour will come close but we won’t have a hung parliament or a minority administration.

Head of Media, Richard Wood

Two party politics is back. Prediction: modest Conservative majority

Overall, the centre is being squeezed and it looks likely that Labour and the Conservatives will both receive higher vote shares than in 2015 although it is worth noting that pollsters historically overestimate Labour’s vote share. UKIP will be decimated and the Liberal Democrats will gain a handful of targets without a much improved vote share. FPTP makes seat predictions hard, but a Conservative majority with modest increases looks the most likely option, – with the slim chance of a hung parliament – begging the question: will the party have gained enough for Theresa May to stay on as prime minister?

Campaign Agent Luke Walpole

This race has been infinitely more exciting than it had any right to be. Corbyn has thrived in this campaign, whilst May has struggled, but a few caveats are needed. The social media echo chamber is always worth remembering. JME may be sipping the Corbyn Kool-Aid, but there’s a world out there which isn’t on Facebook. Though polls have narrowed, the ‘shy’ vote may stick with the status quo. I think the Tories are likely to extend their majority, but not by as much as they hoped.

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