Potential outcomes of the GE, Put Simply

 

By Campaign Agent Eric Kostadinov

The election on June 8th will decide a lot more in British Politics than just the Prime Minister. What kind of working majority, if any, will the new government have? Will smaller parties such as the Lib Dems and UKIP gain relevance or be cast into oblivion? Will there be resignations from major party leaders? Here we explain what could happen depending on the general election outcome…

Conservative Majority

A Conservative majority would keep Theresa May at number 10, and place huge pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to step down as Labour leader. It is possible that if Corbyn chooses not to resign, the right wing of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) could break from the party and form a new, more moderate party. Should Corbyn resign, it is likely that the PLP would blame Corbyn’s left-wing manifesto as the reason for the election defeat, and would quickly want a more moderate candidate to take over the reins of the party. This could prove difficult, however, as it would be likely that Labour members would again choose a candidate on the left of the party. This could make a split within the party almost inevitable.

Corbyn’s position will most likely come down to a couple of crucial factors: How many seats Labour lose, and what Labour’s share of the vote is. Should Labour improve on Ed Miliband’s 30% vote share in 2015, Corbyn may feel he is entitled to have one more crack at a general election, much the way Neil Kinnock did in 1992.

A landslide Tory victory would also mean Theresa May would be able to hammer through her more controversial policies such as opening new grammar schools and allowing a free vote on the re-introduction of fox hunting.

An improved Tory majority could potentially mean stagnation for the Liberal Democrats. It is unclear as to whether Tim Farron would likely resign, however with the party starting from such a low base; it can be argued he deserves more time to turn the party’s fortunes around.

As for UKIP, an improved Tory majority would surely mean a major slump in the UKIP vote share. Currently, Polls place the party on roughly 5%, a whopping 8% less than their 2015 vote share. Should UKIP not gain any seats, (a realistic possibility) leader Paul Nuttall could be forced to resign. On a more drastic note, it is possible that the party could disband, with their main aim of Britain leaving the EU already achieved.

At the moment, the polls suggest a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome, however, nothing should be ruled out…

Hung Parliament (Conservatives largest party)

This result would be a huge disappointment for Theresa May, considering she entered the election campaign with a lead of 18% in the polls. Labour has already halved that gap in some polls, and this outcome should not be ruled out. If a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party was to occur, the most probable outcome would be a Tory minority government. The Liberal Democrats have completely rejected the idea of another coalition with the Conservatives – citing key differences over the EU.

In failing to achieve a majority, Theresa May could very well resign in this scenario, even if her party remains in government without a majority.

If the Conservatives fail to achieve a majority, Jeremy Corbyn would have a huge mandate to remain as Labour leader. It would mean that in only two years he achieved what Ed Miliband failed to do in five – reduce the number of Conservative seats.

Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats do appear to take a slightly different approach when faced with the prospect of a coalition with Labour. The Lib Dems do not categorically deny they would enter a coalition with Labour; they only say that they do not believe Jeremy Corbyn has any chance to become the next PM. Should a shock occur and Labour do better than expected, a progressive centre-left alliance could happen to keep the Tories out. The Liberal Democrats would no doubt want to alter Labour’s Brexit strategy before agreeing to any such deal. Any deal would also depend on the willingness of the SNP and Greens to co-operate, and also how many seats each of those parties has.

Hung Parliament (Labour largest party)

This would almost definitely mean Jeremy Corbyn would head to Downing Street. The country would have drastically rejected Theresa May and thought Corbyn worthy of having a chance to enter Number 10, rendering May’s resignation inevitable.

If Labour were to run a minority government it could be difficult to keep alive, as many moderate Labour MP’s do not back the leader. However, Labour MP’s attitudes could change drastically if Mr Corbyn is able to convince the British electorate to make Labour the largest party after a general election for the first time since 2005.

As mentioned in the previous scenario, a progressive alliance between all left of centre parties could occur, however this time it would be more stable with the increased amount of Labour seats.

Labour majority

Although the polls suggest it unlikely, a Labour majority would make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister and consign Theresa May to resignation.

A Labour majority government could have the potential to run very smoothly if legislation was backed by the SNP and Lib Dems in Westminster.

A Labour victory would most likely have to result in losses for the SNP. For Labour to have any realistic chance of gaining a majority they have to at least make some ground in their former heartland. A reduction of SNP MP’s could postpone calls for independence for the near future.

Anything can happen in politics, just ask Donald Trump and Nigel Farage!

One Reply to “Potential outcomes of the GE, Put Simply”

  1. But what about when the Lib Dems win a landslide victory? Have you considered the possible ramifications of Tim Farron at Number 10?

    Like

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